Skip to main content

Seasonal Recurrence Possible for COVID-19, High Temperature not to Kill it

Seasonal Recurrence Possible for COVID-19, and High Temperature will not Kill it

Researchers at Harvard University conducted research on the common cold to find clues about how the COVID-19 virus might behave.

These findings were written by scientists at the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health’s Department of Epidemiology, Immunology, and Infectious Diseases, and were recently published in Science. 

Researchers led by postdoctoral Stephen Kissler and doctoral student Christine Tedijanto used close relatives of SARS-CoV-2 to simulate its behavior in the coming months. SARS-CoV-2 is a virus that causes COVID-19.

HCoV-OC43 and HCoV-HKU1 viruses spread regularly

The HCoV-OC43 and HCoV-HKU1 viruses spread regularly and cause a common cold. The researchers used them to build a model that examined the impact of potential seasonality, social alienation strategies, and the role of viruses in future disease. 

The researchers say that these assumptions do not consider how the results will be affected if vaccines or treatments are developed-because neither method seems to appear immediately.

In each simulated scene, they found that the warm weather did not stop the spread. This is because, taking the common cold as an example, most people usually get sick and develop immunity in the spring. 

Enough people with SARS-CoV-2 Infection

However, with SARS-CoV-2, enough people may still be susceptible to infection, even if the transmission is reduced in the warmer months, it can spread.

"The effect of temperature does exist," said Marc Lipsitch, one of the authors of the paper and professor of epidemiology, when talking about the seasonal decrease in cases shown in this study. It will not disappear in the summer without intervention. "

Another unknown factor about this new coronavirus is how long the immunity can be maintained after infection. 
Short-term immunity like a cold lasts less than a year, and after the initial pandemic peak, it will cause annual COVID-19 outbreaks. 

On the other hand, permanent immunization will eliminate the spread of the virus 5 years or more after the virus first broke out.
Simulation for COVID-19 may have a seasonal recurrence

The researchers also studied the impact of single and multiple social alienation on maintaining the number of patients, to enable the medical system to cope. 
Kissler said that the most effective intervention is a series of social alienation periods, coupled with effective detection of disease recurrence, in order to re-design measures before the case overwhelms the entire system.

The researchers said that such a situation not only caused the fewest deaths, but also made the population gradually gain immunity to the virus.

At an online meeting held at Harvard Business School on Tuesday morning, Ashish Jha, a global health professor, talked about a more pressing question: under what circumstances may the current social distance restrictions be lifted?

Business interests and public health interest

Jha, director of the Harvard Institute of Global Health, said that those who believe that the business interests and public health interests of the United States are at odds with each other are wrong. In fact, no matter what the new normal is, both sides need each other to make a smooth transition.

Jha said that it should not be seen as a non-other situation, that is, society hastily reopened to save the economy, or postponed the opening to save health. 
Early reopening will trigger a new round of disease, which will not only make many people sick, but also make those who are not sick feel scared, so they stay at home and have little boost to the economy. 
Instead, he believes that companies and public health experts must work together to develop, produce, and distribute testing, treatment, vaccines, and equipment to control the epidemic and restore economic security.

Jha said, "If there is a way to make the connection between public health and business closer, I think this is how we get rid of the predicament. 
If it becomes us to you, we all lose. Our death toll and economy will be bad. "

Number of new cases should have fallen for 2 weeks

Jha said that before relieving social alienation, the number of new cases should have fallen for two weeks, and there should be enough testing-as many as 500,000 cases per day nationwide, three to four times the current rate. 
In addition, he said, the medical system should be strengthened, and tired doctors and nurses should get a chance to breathe before taking measures that may cause the case to rise again.

Jha said that large gatherings such as baseball games still have to wait, but restaurants, bars and workplaces may open, although adjustments will be made to keep people at a safer distance. He also predicted that face-to-face courses at universities of the same size may start again in the fall.

He said that even air travel can be restored, such as automatic virus detection before flight and self-quarantine when returning.

Jha said, "We can do a lot of things to make opening a reality, but before we have the vaccine, it will not return to the" normal level.
I think it will take 12 to 18 months.


Popular posts from this blog

Vaginitis Treatment and Prevention

Prevention and Treatment of Vaginitis Q. I am 22 years old and just had sex this month. This time after finishing my aunt's itching, there are a lot of secretions. Did I have vaginitis? Super scared, what should I do? What should I do if my female ticket got vaginitis? OR     I have fungal vaginitis. It has not been good to reuse the medicine for 2 months. It is really shameful. I dare not let my roommate find that there is no way to go to the hospital every day.     The vagina was very itchy after coming to the aunt this time. I am now physically and mentally broken. I was nineteen and still in college. I'm not that kind of casual girl. I dare not talk to my family about such things. Too scared.    Ans. Vaginitis Study For obstetrics and gynecology, vaginitis is really the disease we are most familiar with. More than 50% of obstetrics and gynecology clinics are due to vaginitis. There are also people who originally checked for other diseases. As a result, a l

Loose or Relaxed Vagina Tightening

Relaxation of Vagina What should I do if my child's vagina relaxes after birth? Know that every woman enjoys the process of being a mother, because being a mother is very happy, even if you have a baby, you have a complete family. Sometimes, although happy, sometimes it is not sexually blessed, because the birth of a child will lead to vaginal relaxation, and vaginal relaxation will affect the quality of sexual life. So, what should be done after the child is born? Procedures to improve vaginal relaxation Traditional methods to improve vaginal relaxation at different levels: So, how should postpartum women, or women who have already experienced vaginal relaxation, do pelvic muscle training? The traditional Chinese health-care method of "collecting anus and lifting gas" can be well forged practice pelvic muscles.   Natural Method to Tighten Vagina Every morning and evening in a fresh air place, inhale deeply after inhaling. At the same time, like anxiety

3 Substantial Dangers of Metformin Medicine

The three major hazards of Metformin can be fatal if you ignore Any Metformin is the first-line medication recommended in the guidelines for the prevention and treatment of type 2 diabetes . Not only can it improve insulin resistance and lower blood sugar, it can also prevent macrovascular and microvascular disease caused by diabetes, improve blood lipid metabolism, and reduce the chance of cardiovascular complications. Most people with diabetes need to take it for a long time. However, there are three issues that Metformin must pay attention to, otherwise it may cause harm or even threaten life at any time.   1. Long-term use of metformin will cause the loss of vitamin B12 and accelerate the occurrence of diabetic neuropathy Vitamin B12 is an important substance that maintains the normal state of the body's hematopoietic function and can effectively prevent pernicious anemia. It can also exist in the form of coenzymes to regulate sugar metabolism. At the same time, it is als